Match: UEFA Champions League
Fixture: Benfica VS Nice
Local kick-off time: 19:30 on August 12th
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Handicap Prediction:
Nice +1.25 (Asian Handicap)
Home Win + Draw (European Odds)
Predicted Scores: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
Comprehensive Analysis:
Benfica finished as runners-up in last season's league with a narrow 2-point deficit. Thanks to their excellent performances in previous seasons, they qualified for the first-ever FIFA Club World Cup after the tournament's restructuring, eventually reaching the Round of 16. After a rest period of less than a month, the team played friendly matches and later the Primeira Liga Super Cup final. Notably, against a Lisbon-based team that had more rest, Benfica still secured a 1-0 away win in regular time. In the first leg of the Champions League, they also gained an early advantage with an away victory. Hosting Nice in this match, there is a gap between the two teams in terms of squad value and world rankings. With the first-leg advantage, Benfica are more capable of defeating Nice twice with home advantage on their side.
Nice finished 4th in last season's league, just 1 point short of the Champions League qualification zone. They played several friendly matches during the offseason but achieved unsatisfactory results. Having lost the first leg of the Champions League qualifying round, their away trip in this match will be particularly challenging. Facing Benfica, who kept a clean sheet against them in the first leg, Nice now lack favorable conditions—unlike the first leg where they had home advantage, they have no edge in terms of timing, location, or momentum. Given their poor performance in the first leg, their European campaign this season is likely to end here.
Summary:
Benfica opened with a -1 home handicap, which has now been raised to -1.25. Compared to their -0.5 advantage in the away first leg, a -1 home handicap is already substantial, and the further increase to -1.25 sends a clear signal. In terms of popularity, Benfica are undoubtedly the hotter side, and after a 2-0 away win in the first leg, the public generally expects them to win by at least two goals at home. Additionally, Benfica have covered the spread in their last 6 consecutive matches, so they enjoy strong market trust. In this context, the rise from -1 to -1.25 will only increase Benfica's popularity further. Therefore, it is highly likely that Nice will lose this match, but they are unlikely to lose by more than two goals or may even hold Benfica to a draw. More attention should be paid to Nice covering the spread in this game.
