Match: Serie A
Fixture: Juventus vs AC Milan
Local Kick-off Time: 20:45, October 5th
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Handicap Prediction:
AC Milan +0 (Asian Handicap, Level Handicap)
Away Win (European Handicap)
Predicted Scores: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
Comprehensive Analysis:
The cheering from the Allianz Stadium is Juventus’ most solid backing for their defense. This season, the team concedes just 8.5 shots per game, the lowest in Serie A. Head coach Sérgio Conceição sticks to the 4-3-3 formation, and the double defensive midfielders’ interception partnership of Adrien Rabiot and Khephren Thuram contributes 6.8 tackles per game. Although they were held to a draw by Hellas Verona in the last round, they still firmly controlled the midfield rhythm. The offensive end relies on the counter-attack link-up between Yannick Mbangula and Thuram — back in January this season, it was Mbangula who scored with a curved shot in the box and Thuram who provided a through ball assist for Timothy Weah to find the net, helping Juventus beat Milan. The former has a 35% success rate in curved shots in the box, while the latter’s through ball accuracy ranks among the top three in Serie A. However, offensive efficiency is a concern: in the last match against Verona, they unleashed 18 shots but only scored once — twice the number of shots the opponent took, yet failed to secure a win. Fortunately, the team has no major injuries at present, and the main defensive line remains intact.
Milan’s winning formula lies in "extreme possession + wide attacks". In their 3-0 away victory over Udinese, the team’s possession rate soared to 62% with an 89% pass accuracy. Head coach Stefano Pioli focuses on the 4-3-3 formation, with Christian Pulisic as the offensive core — he has scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists in the last 4 league rounds, and even delivered a perfect performance of a brace plus an assist in the last round. His 42% success rate in follow-up shots in the box is precisely targeted at the defensive gaps Juventus leaves after counter-attacks. The left-sided Theo Hernández’s overlapping runs (2.6 times per game) paired with the right-sided Yunus Musa’s crosses (3.1 times per game) form a dual wide engine; it was Musa’s cross that led to an own goal, helping Milan reverse Juventus in the Supercoppa Italiana. Their away resilience is also impressive: this season, they have 1 win and 1 draw in 2 away games, remaining unbeaten and yet to concede a goal. However, when facing Juventus’ compact defense, Milan needs to be alert to the risk of counter-attacks — in last season’s league away match against Juventus, it was Thuram’s through ball that broke through their defense and led to a goal.
Summary:
The initial Asian Handicap for this match mainly opened with Juventus -0.25 and has now dropped to a Level Handicap. Although Juventus has the backing of their home record, Milan’s three-game winning streak and possession advantage cannot be underestimated; while Juventus’ defensive fortress is solid, they need to solve the problem of offensive inefficiency. When Serie A’s most compact defense meets the most possession-focused attacking unit, this top-of-the-table battle may replicate the reversal script of the Supercoppa Italiana.
