Match: MLS
Fixture: Orlando City vs New York City FC
Local Kick-off Time: July 16, 2025, 7:30 PM (EDT, UTC-4)
Venue: International Cote Stadium
Team Strength Overview:
Orlando City’s recent form has not been good. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Montreal at home in their last league game, and have now gone three consecutive matches without a win. Although they maintained some attacking firepower during this period, their defensive line has been plagued by problems. So far in 22 MLS matches, Orlando City have a record of 9 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses, accumulating 35 points. Overall, the team also has an obvious issue of strong attack but weak defense.
New York City FC have had fluctuating form recently. They lost 0-2 away to Charlotte in their last game, and have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. Through 21 MLS matches, New York City FC have 9 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 31 points. It’s worth noting that New York City FC are highly unbalanced this season—8 of their 9 wins have come at home, while their away performance in both attack and defense has been weak.
Handicap Prediction:
Orlando City -0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Home Win (European Odds)
Predicted Scores: 2-1, 3-1, 4-1
Predicted Goals: 3, 4, 5
Details of Betting Odds:
Major Asian bookmakers initially set the handicap for this match at Orlando City -0.75, and it has remained unchanged so far, with slight increases in Orlando City’s odds.
In terms of European odds, the initial data was 1.66-4.00-5.00, and currently, the odds for Orlando City have also seen a certain increase.
For the over/under, Asian bookmakers opened with an initial line of 3 goals, which has remained stable, while the payout for the under option has decreased somewhat.
Analysis of Betting Data:
With both teams in poor form, bookmakers offered an initial home win odds of around 1.63. Comparing this with the odds from their recent matches against teams like Charlotte and Montreal, this level of support is reasonable. Moreover, the draw odds in European markets are relatively low compared to the average in MLS, which has forced the odds for an upset (away win) to be set high—this initial stance is certainly unfavorable for New York City FC to pull off an upset.
Later, there was a slight increase in the home win odds, with some bookmakers clearly adjusting towards the draw, though the magnitude was small. Given that both teams are in a slump and have a high number of draws, this is clearly an attempt to entice bets on the draw. Therefore, the increase in home win odds is more about emphasizing Orlando City’s poor home performance and using the history of head-to-head matches to suppress confidence in them.
Conclusion: Combining the data and fundamentals, Orlando City have a high chance of securing three points at home today. Additionally, the over/under line of 3 goals is relatively deep for this match, which is more conducive to Orlando City scoring more goals and building a larger advantage.
Predicted Corner Kicks: Over 9.5
Corner Kick Analysis:
Orlando City commonly uses a 4-3-3 formation, with a scattered attacking focus and diverse firepower, mainly adopting offensive methods such as wing bursts and central area raids. New York City FC will also stick to a 4-3-3 formation; in attack, they have sharp wing play, strong central penetration abilities, and diverse set-piece tactics. Given both teams’ tactical styles, there will be plenty of shots and wing attacks in this match, which will undoubtedly lead to a high number of corner kicks.
