Group B Qualification Scenarios: Atleti must beat Botafogo by 3 goals in final round to secure progression

Mason OptiMetrics
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With Botafogo's 1-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain, all matches in the second round of Group B at the Club World Cup have concluded.

After this round, Botafogo sits top of the group with 6 points, followed by Paris and Atlético Madrid in second and third, while Seattle Sounders remain bottom.

The tiebreaker rules for this year's Club World Cup are prioritized as follows:

① Points from head-to-head matches among tied teams

② Goal difference in head-to-head matches

③ Goals scored in head-to-head matches

④ If the above three are equal, compare goal difference across all matches, then goals scored... If still equal, fair play points apply.

Final round fixtures:

Atlético Madrid vs Botafogo

Seattle Sounders vs Paris Saint-Germain

Scenarios for the final round:
If Atlético loses to Botafogo
Atlético will definitely be eliminated (even if three teams are tied on 3 points, Atlético cannot rank first among them), while Botafogo secures the group top spot.
In this case, Paris will qualify if they avoid defeat to Seattle; otherwise, Seattle progresses.
If Atlético draws with Botafogo
Botafogo secures the group top spot with 7 points.
Paris only needs 1 point to advance ahead of Atlético (due to head-to-head superiority). If Paris loses to Seattle, Atlético qualifies as group runners-up.
If Atlético beats Botafogo
If Paris fails to defeat Seattle, Paris is eliminated. Atlético tops the group ahead of Botafogo, with Botafogo qualifying as runners-up.
If Paris beats Seattle, Botafogo, Paris, and Atlético will be tied on points, requiring a mini-league tiebreaker (results involving Seattle are excluded).
The three teams have equal head-to-head points (3 points each), so goal difference in their mutual matches will be compared.
Current mini-league goal differences: Atlético (-4), Paris (+3), Botafogo (+1).
Conclusion: If Paris wins, Atlético must beat Botafogo by a 3-goal margin to qualify. In other words, a 3+ goal victory for Atlético over Botafogo ensures their progression regardless of the other match's result.
 

FIFA Club World CupFIFA Club World CupAtletico MadridAtletico MadridParis Saint GermainParis Saint GermainAtletico MadridAtletico MadridVSBotafogo RJBotafogo RJSeattle SoundersSeattle SoundersVSParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
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