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2025 AFCON Preview: Curse vs. Home Advantage – Will Morocco Break the Jinx or Will Ivory Coast’s Zombie Magic Repeat?

Vincenzo Golazzo
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As the 35th Africa Cup of Nations kicks off in Morocco on December 21, 2025, the continent’s most prestigious football tournament is set to unfold amid unprecedented drama and controversy. Delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the FIFA Club World Cup in the United States, this edition brings together 24 nations chasing glory, with the host nation Morocco craving its first continental title since 1976 and defending champions Ivory Coast aiming to defy one of African football’s most brutal curses. From the "Zombie Elephants" seeking to replicate their 2023 miracle to the Atlas Lions riding home support, every group stage clash and knockout battle will be defined by tension, tradition, and underdog stories. This preview dissects the tournament’s biggest narratives: the haunted history of defending champions, the make-or-break pressure on Morocco, the star players who will dominate headlines, and the controversial title prediction that divides football pundits worldwide.

AFCON’s Haunted Past: The Defending Champion Curse and the Host Nation Paradox

To understand the stakes of AFCON 2025, one must first confront the tournament’s unforgiving history – a history marked by two conflicting and equally compelling phenomena: the near-impossible task of defending the title and the double-edged sword of home advantage. Let’s start with the cold, hard data that makes Ivory Coast’s title defense such a Herculean task.

Since 1990, only one defending champion has successfully retained the AFCON trophy: Cameroon in 2002. In the same period, 12 of 16 defending champions have failed to reach the semi-finals, with seven crashing out in the group stage. The numbers are even more damning for recent holders: between 2010 and 2023, five of six defending champions were eliminated before the quarter-finals. Ivory Coast’s own 2023 triumph, however, was anything but conventional – a run that earned them the nickname "the Zombies" after sacking coach Jean-Louis Gasset mid-tournament following a 4-0 group stage humiliation by Equatorial Guinea, only to rally and beat Nigeria 2-1 in the final thanks to Sebastien Haller’s late winner. This raises the first big debate of AFCON 2025: is Ivory Coast’s "Zombie Magic" a sign they can break the curse, or was their 2023 win a one-off fluke that will inevitably unravel under the pressure of defense?

Then there’s the host nation paradox. Five of the last six host nations to reach the AFCON final have lifted the trophy, a statistic that should buoy Morocco. But the Atlas Lions carry their own historical burden: their only AFCON title came in 1976, and they have failed to reach the final in five previous hostings. Worse, recent host nations that failed to win have often collapsed spectacularly – South Africa in 2013 (quarter-finals), Egypt in 2019 (round of 16), and Gabon in 2017 (group stage). Adding to the intrigue is Morocco’s recent form: they won the 2025 African Nations Championship (a tournament for home-based players) with a 3-2 victory over Madagascar in the final, suggesting their domestic talent pool is deeper than ever. But does success in a second-tier tournament translate to AFCON glory? Or will the weight of 49 years of waiting crush Walid Regragui’s side?

A quick glance at the all-time AFCON champions list further amplifies the tournament’s unpredictability. Egypt leads with seven titles, but their last triumph was in 2010 – a drought that feels endless for a nation obsessed with football. Cameroon (five titles) and Ghana (four) are traditional powerhouses, but both have struggled to translate talent into silverware in recent years. Senegal, the 2021 champions, have established themselves as a modern force, but they too face questions about consistency. This history isn’t just a backdrop – it’s a psychological minefield that every team will navigate in Morocco.

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Teams to Watch: Contenders, Dark Horses, and the Group of Death That Could Define the Tournament

1. Morocco (Hosts, Group A): Pressure, Talent, and the Weight of Expectation

Group A: Morocco, Mali, Zambia, Comoros. On paper, this is a kind group for the hosts, but make no mistake – Morocco’s every move will be scrutinized. Walid Regragui’s side boasts a squad blending European experience and homegrown talent: Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain) remains one of the world’s best full-backs, while Sofyan Amrabat (Manchester United) anchors the midfield. What’s more, Morocco’s 2022 World Cup run – where they became the first African team to reach the semi-finals – proved they can handle big-stage pressure. But there’s a catch: European clubs have long complained about AFCON’s scheduling, and while the 2025 edition was moved to December to avoid conflicts, injuries to key players remain a risk. Regragui has also faced criticism for his rigid tactical approach – will he adapt if Morocco falls behind early? The biggest question, though, is psychological: can the Atlas Lions perform when every fan in the stadium expects them to win? A slow start could trigger panic, while a strong group stage could propel them to glory. One thing is certain: Morocco isn’t just a team to watch – they’re the tournament’s emotional heartbeat.

2. Ivory Coast (Defending Champions, Group F): The Zombies Face a Death Group

Group F: Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Gabon, Mozambique. If Ivory Coast needed a reminder of how tough defending their title will be, the group stage draw provided it. Drawn against Cameroon (five-time champions) and Gabon (a side with plenty of individual talent), the "Zombies" have no room for error. Sebastien Haller (Borussia Dortmund) is the team’s emotional and attacking leader – his 2023 final winner, coming just over a year after beating testicular cancer, was one of football’s most inspiring moments. But Haller’s form has been inconsistent in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season, raising concerns about his sharpness. The good news is that Ivory Coast retains key players from their 2023 triumph, including Franck Kessie (Al-Ahli) and Simon Adingra (Brighton & Hove Albion), the latter named AFCON 2023’s Best Young Player. However, the departure of caretaker coach Emerse Fae – who masterminded their 2023 comeback – to Nice has left a void. New coach Jean-Louis Gasset (yes, the same coach they sacked in 2023) has a point to prove, but his return is controversial: many fans believe Fae’s attacking philosophy was the key to their success, while Gasset is seen as too defensive. Can Ivory Coast survive the Group of Death? And if they do, can they become the first team since 2002 to defend the AFCON title? The debate is fierce – and it will be settled on the pitch.

3. Senegal (Group D): The Golden Generation’s Last Chance?

Group D: Senegal, DR Congo, Benin, Botswana. Senegal’s squad is packed with European-based stars, but time is running out for their "Golden Generation." Sadio Mane (Al-Nassr) remains the team’s talisman, but at 32, this could be his last chance to add another AFCON title to his 2021 triumph. The team’s biggest strength is their attack: Nicolas Jackson (Bayern Munich) has been in sensational form in the 2025-26 Bundesliga, scoring a stoppage-time winner against St. Pauli in December 2025 to secure three points for Bayern. Meanwhile, Ismaila Sarr (Marseille) provides pace on the wing, and Kalidou Koulibaly (Al-Hilal) anchors a solid defense. Senegal’s biggest weakness, however, is their tendency to underperform in big games – they lost to Morocco in the 2025 African Nations Championship semi-finals on penalties, a result that raised questions about their mental resilience. Coach Aliou Cissé has been in charge since 2015, and while he delivered the 2021 title, there’s pressure to prove he can still get the best out of his squad. With a relatively easy group, Senegal should progress to the knockout stages, but their true test will come against the likes of Morocco or Egypt. Can they avoid the complacency that has plagued other African powerhouses? Or will this golden generation end their time together without another trophy?

4. Dark Horses: Burkina Faso (Group E) and Angola (Group B)

No AFCON is complete without a dark horse, and in 2025, two teams stand out: Burkina Faso and Angola. Burkina Faso (Group E: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan) have a history of upsetting the odds – they finished as runners-up in 2013 and third in 2017. Their current squad is led by two in-form Premier League attackers: Dango Ouattara (Brentford) and Bertrand Traore (Sunderland). Ouattara scored a dramatic late winner against Burnley in December 2025, while Traore netted his first goal for Sunderland in a comeback draw against Bournemouth. With Algeria struggling for consistency and Equatorial Guinea lacking depth, Burkina Faso has a realistic chance of topping Group E. If their attack fires, they could go far.

Angola (Group B: Egypt, South Africa, Angola, Zimbabwe) is another team to watch. Their squad is packed with European-based talent, including defenders Rui Modesto (Udinese) and David Carmo (Real Oviedo), and forward Zito Luvumbo (Cagliari). Angola finished second in their AFCON qualifying group, beating Ghana – a traditional powerhouse – twice. Egypt is the favorite in Group B, but their reliance on Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) makes them vulnerable if the Egyptian King is marked out of the game. Angola’s disciplined defense and counter-attacking style could cause problems for any team, and a knockout stage run wouldn’t be a surprise.

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Star Players to Watch: From World Cup Heroes to Rising Talents

1. Mohamed Salah (Egypt): The Final Push for AFCON Glory

At 33, this could be Mohamed Salah’s last chance to win an AFCON title – a trophy that has eluded him throughout his illustrious career. Salah is Egypt’s all-time leading goalscorer, but he has often been criticized for underperforming in big AFCON games. Egypt’s 2025 group stage (Group B: Egypt, South Africa, Angola, Zimbabwe) is manageable, but the pressure on Salah will be immense. A poor tournament could see him criticized by Egyptian fans, while a title-winning run would cement his status as a national hero. Salah’s form for Liverpool in the 2025-26 Premier League season has been strong, scoring 12 goals in 18 games, but can he translate that to the international stage? The debate about Salah’s legacy in African football will be settled in Morocco.

2. Achraf Hakimi (Morocco): The Hosts’ Tactical Linchpin

Achraf Hakimi isn’t just a full-back – he’s Morocco’s most important player. His pace, crossing, and defensive solidity make him a threat at both ends of the pitch, and he’s proven he can perform in big games (see his penalty miss in the 2022 World Cup semi-final against France, but also his crucial goals in the knockout stages). Hakimi’s relationship with coach Walid Regragui is key – the two have a mutual respect that has helped Morocco’s defense become one of the best in Africa. For the hosts to win the title, Hakimi needs to be at his best. Expect opposing teams to target him with pacey wingers, but don’t be surprised if he comes out on top.

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Controversial Title Prediction: Why Morocco Will Win – But Ivory Coast Could Shock the World

Predicting an AFCON winner is never easy – the tournament is famous for its unpredictability – but based on form, squad depth, and psychological factors, Morocco is the favorite to win the 2025 AFCON. Here’s why: first, home advantage is too big to ignore. Five of the last six host nations to reach the final have won the title, and Morocco’s fans will create an atmosphere that opposing teams will struggle to handle. Second, their squad is balanced – they have a solid defense (led by Hakimi and Nayef Aguerd), a dynamic midfield (Amrabat, Hakim Ziyech), and a clinical attack (Youssef En-Nesyri). Third, their recent success in the 2025 African Nations Championship proves their domestic talent is strong, meaning they can handle injuries to key players.

But here’s the controversial counter-argument: Ivory Coast could repeat their 2023 miracle. The "Zombie" factor is real – this team has proven they can handle adversity, and their Group F (Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Gabon, Mozambique) will toughen them up for the knockout stages. Sebastien Haller’s emotional connection to the team can’t be quantified, and Franck Kessie’s experience in big games will be crucial. What’s more, the defending champion curse has been broken before (Cameroon in 2002), and Ivory Coast has the talent to do it again. If they can survive the Group of Death, they could ride the momentum all the way to the final.

There’s also a dark horse possibility: Senegal. Their squad is the most talented in Africa, and if Nicolas Jackson and Sadio Mane click up front, they could steamroll opponents. But their mental resilience remains a question mark – losing to Morocco on penalties in the 2025 African Nations Championship semi-finals suggests they still struggle under pressure.

One thing is certain: the 2025 AFCON will not be boring. From the host nation’s title quest to the defending champions’ curse-defying bid, from the Group of Death to the rising stars looking to make their name, every game will have something at stake. The tournament’s delayed scheduling, the pressure on star players, and the unpredictability of African football will combine to create a spectacle that fans will remember for years.

Final Thoughts: AFCON 2025 – More Than Just a Football Tournament

The Africa Cup of Nations is more than just a football tournament – it’s a celebration of African culture, resilience, and passion. For Morocco, it’s a chance to showcase their country to the world and end a 49-year title drought. For Ivory Coast, it’s a chance to make history and prove their 2023 triumph was no fluke. For players like Salah and Haller, it’s a chance to cement their legacies. For fans across the continent, it’s a chance to come together and cheer for their nations.

As the tournament kicks off on December 21, 2025, one question will be on everyone’s mind: who will lift the trophy on January 18, 2026? Will Morocco break the jinx? Will Ivory Coast repeat their miracle? Or will a dark horse like Burkina Faso or Angola shock the world? Whatever happens, one thing is clear: the 2025 AFCON will be a tournament for the ages – and it’s sure to spark debates that will rage long after the final whistle.