Match: FIFA World Cup European Qualifiers-Italy vs. Estonia
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Local Kick-off Time: September 5, 20:45
Handicap Prediction (Asian Handicap): Italy -3
Match Result Prediction (European Handicap): Home Win (Italy)
Predicted Scores: 4-0, 5-0, 5-1
Predicted Total Goals: 4, 5, 6
Comprehensive Analysis
After 2 rounds of qualifiers, Italy has only earned 3 points, trailing group leaders Norway by 9 points and 12 goals in goal difference. Due to poor results, head coach Luciano Spalletti has been sacked, with 47-year-old former Italy international Gennaro Gattuso now taking charge. As a player, Gattuso was a defensive midfielder nicknamed “The Butcher”—he lacked technical flair but was renowned for his fighting spirit. As a coach, he has managed top-five league giants such as AC Milan and Marseille. While his tactical acumen is average, his ability to inspire team spirit is exceptional—exactly what Italy currently lacks.With such a large gap to Norway, Italy has no room for error. They not only need three points but also need to accumulate as many goal difference as possible, as a scenario where teams are tied on points and compete on goal difference is highly likely later in the group stage. Gattuso has confirmed that Italy will switch to a four-back formation—a correct decision, as the three-back system has failed under previous coaches (Antonio Conte, Gian Piero Ventura, and Spalletti).
Nearly half of Estonia’s squad plays in the domestic league, with only goalkeeper Karl Hein valued at over €1 million. Hein played for La Liga’s Real Valladolid last season, conceding 68 goals in 31 appearances (a mediocre performance), and his team was ultimately relegated. Estonia’s overall competitiveness is extremely limited. Additionally, they will be without their defensive core and captain Karol Mets—a center-back for St. Pauli and one of the few Estonian players in Europe’s top five leagues.
Summary
Italy’s narrow 0-1 defeat to Norway in their last match, combined with their recent slump in form, has likely reduced interest in this game. However, Asian bookmakers initially opened with Italy -2.75, and the handicap has since been upgraded to Italy -3—reflecting strong support for Italy. Furthermore, under Gattuso’s leadership, Italy has shown significant improvement in team spirit. With their strongest squad called up, Italy is determined to secure a convincing victory. Therefore, this match is expected to see Italy win heavily at home.
