Italian Super Cup: AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: Coppa Italia Supercoppa (Italian Super Cup)

Fixture: AC Milan vs Napoli

Local Kick-off Time: December 18th, 22:00

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Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:

Napoli

Napoli endured a nightmare week last week: they lost 0-2 to Benfica at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, suffering defeats in all three of their Champions League group stage away matches and conceding 10 goals. The setback continued into their league match, as the defending champions lost away to Udinese. Leonardo Spinazzola replaced Olivera in the starting lineup. Hosts Udinese repeatedly threatened Napoli’s goal—Rasmus Højlund missed an open chance, and former Udinese player Luka hit the post with a shot—resulting in a humiliating away defeat for Napoli. Following the loss, Napoli dropped to 3rd place in the standings, 2 points behind Inter Milan. Romelu Lukaku should be included in the matchday squad, but Kevin De Bruyne, goalkeeper Alex Meret, midfielders Billy Gilmour and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa remain sidelined with injuries. Stanislav Lobotka came off the bench in last week’s league match and is expected to return to the starting lineup. Olivera, who missed Wednesday’s training, will undergo a fitness assessment. Napoli have won the Coppa Italia Supercoppa twice in five appearances, most recently reaching the final last January—defeating Fiorentina 3-0 in the semi-finals but losing 0-1 to Inter Milan in the final.

AC Milan

AC Milan drew 2-2 with newly promoted Sassuolo at home in last week’s Serie A match, ending their three-match winning streak, but they still extend their unbeaten run to 14 matches. Manager Massimiliano Allegri was named Serie A Manager of the Month for November before the match. Sassuolo opened the scoring through midfielder Davide Frattesi; AC Milan left-back Davide Bartesaghi equalized with his first Serie A goal in the 34th minute, and the youngster put Milan ahead just two minutes into the second half. However, Sassuolo responded with a brilliant team move finished by Lauriente, who later hit the post with a long-range shot. The draw saw AC Milan lose their top spot, now trailing Inter Milan by 1 point. AC Milan welcome the return of Yacine Adli, but he will not start; Ruben Loftus-Cheek is likely to retain his starting position. Jiménez and Matteo Gabbia remain sidelined with injuries, while Rafael Leão will undergo a fitness assessment. If the Portuguese winger is unavailable, 19-year-old Max Ibrahimović could make his first-team debut. AC Milan have won the Coppa Italia Supercoppa eight times and finished as runners-up five times. In January’s Supercoppa, AC Milan defeated Juventus and Inter Milan to lift the trophy. Allegri has won the Supercoppa three times with Juventus and AC Milan, second only to Simone Inzaghi (five wins) and Fabio Capello/Juventus (four wins each), while Antonio Conte has only won it once with Juventus.

Summary: 

Napoli’s main focus this season is defending their Serie A title. They have lost three consecutive Champions League away matches and only narrowly defeated Cagliari on penalties in the Coppa Italia. The Coppa Italia Supercoppa offers substantial prize money, and it remains to be seen if Aurelio De Laurentiis and Conte will raise their game for this fixture. In historical encounters, Conte has dominated against AC Milan and Allegri. However, Napoli are still without their two most important players—De Bruyne—putting them at a significant disadvantage on paper. AC Milan have no European commitments this season, allowing them to focus fully on domestic competitions. The Asian Handicap has opened at Level Ball, which accurately reflects the two teams’ current league form and paper strength. This match is likely to be a cautious affair; Leão’s availability could be the decisive factor in tipping the scales. Additionally, Napoli’s recent cup form has been extremely poor, so AC Milan can be trusted to avoid defeat within 90 minutes.

Opening Odds

Handicap Prediction:

Level Ball (Asian Handicap)

AC Milan Win (European Handicap)

Predicted Scores: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1

Predicted Total Goals: 0, 1, 2

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