Premier League : Chelsea VS Liverpool Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: Premier League

Fixture: Chelsea VS Liverpool

Local Kick-off Time: 16:30, October 4th

Click here to watch the match LIVE now! 🔴 ▶

Click here to watch the match LIVE now! 🔴 ▶

Handicap Prediction:

Chelsea +0.25 (Asian Handicap)

Home Win + Draw (European Handicap)

Predicted Scores: 1-0、1-1、2-1

Predicted Total Goals: 1、2、3

Comprehensive Analysis:

Chelsea has had an underwhelming start to the new season—with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses after 6 rounds, accumulating 8 points, they are temporarily ranked 8th in the Premier League. In the last round, they lost 1-3 to Brighton at home, suffering a two-match losing streak, and the problem of imbalance between attack and defense was once again magnified. To make matters worse, Chelsea has only won against League One side Lincoln City in their last 5 official matches, with the quality of their victories being insufficient. In terms of the squad, as many as 6 players including Wesley Fofana, Malo Gusto, and Christopher Nkunku are sidelined due to injuries, leaving Enzo Maresca struggling with rotations and tactical arrangements. The team's attack relies heavily on the "post-2000s twin stars" Cole Palmer and Conor Gallagher, but once the opponent targets and restricts them, the attacking methods immediately become monotonous. In particular, set-piece defense is a hidden danger—nearly half of their home goals conceded come from corners or free kicks. The advantage of Stamford Bridge is diminishing; how to stabilize the defense and improve the shot conversion rate is the key for the Blues to stage a comeback.

Defending champions Liverpool made a flying start in the first 5 matches of the new season, securing 4 wins with last-minute winners, demonstrating extremely strong resilience. However, this "last-minute luck" backfired in the last away match against Crystal Palace, where they conceded a goal in stoppage time and lost 1-2, suffering their first defeat of the season and having their winning streak halted. Although Liverpool still tops the standings with 15 points, they are closely pursued by Arsenal and Manchester City behind them, putting immense pressure on their title defense. From the data perspective, they had a possession rate of 68% in the last round and took 20 shots but only hit the target 4 times, showing a significant decline in attacking efficiency. In terms of defense, the number of goals conceded in the last two away matches has increased, highlighting the hidden dangers of poor integration of new signings and the overall defensive line. In this match, Arne Slot may make appropriate rotations—Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk may be rested, and substitute forwards such as Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez will attack Chelsea's depleted defensive line. Liverpool's counter-attack efficiency is extremely high, with 38% of their goals this season coming from counter-attacks, which is a powerful weapon against Chelsea's high pressing.

Summary:

The Asian Handicap generally started with a level handicap and has now moved to Liverpool -0.25. The handicap odds for Liverpool have dropped to the middle range, but rose to a high level after the Champions League. Based on the fundamentals of both sides, the initial European and Asian data were almost level, which is unreasonable. Liverpool's strength this year will inevitably be favored under a level handicap. What's more, after Chelsea lost to Manchester United, there was still no handicap upgrade even with Cole Palmer sidelined. This is unreasonable. At that time, fans would inevitably favor Liverpool, and although the handicap was later upgraded, this move was already a last-ditch effort. It is difficult for fans to believe that such a luxurious Liverpool team would suffer three consecutive defeats; under such circumstances, the handicap upgrade has not only increased Liverpool's investment value but also boosted the confidence of Liverpool fans. However, considering the early and trend of the actual European and Asian data, there are problems such as a poor start and a slow handicap upgrade. Therefore, it is advisable to support Chelsea to defend their home ground in this match.