Match: FIFA Club World Cup
Teams: Inter Milan vs Fluminense
Kick-off Time: June 30, 2025, 15:00 (EDT, UTC-4)
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Referee: Iván Barton (El Salvador)
Assistant Referees: David Morán (El Salvador) and Henry Pupiro (Nicaragua)
Handicap Prediction
Asian Handicap: Fluminense +0.75
European Odds: Draw + Away Win
Expected Scores: 1-1, 0-0, 0-1
Overview
Inter Milan shone in the group stage with 2 wins and 1 draw, boasting a solid attack but occasional defensive lapses. To advance further, they must tighten up their backline. Fluminense, meanwhile, are no pushovers—their defining trait is an airtight defense, conceding just 2 goals in 3 group stage matches, a testament to their defensive intensity.
Odds Analysis
European Odds Movement: The main win odds have peaked at 1.71 (historical high range), with draw at 3.90 and away win at 6.20 (both historical highs). Bookmakers appear prepared for a draw or away victory, adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward Inter’s progression.
Asian Handicap: The initial line gave Inter -0.75 with 1.0 full odds, but subsequent odds declines without a change in handicap suggest deliberate bias toward Inter. Given Fluminense’s form, they are fully capable of matching Inter’s level.
Expected Goals: 0, 1, 2
Overview
Inter face a stacked injury list and an aging squad, raising fitness concerns. Their 2 wins and 1 draw in the group stage relied on experience as much as skill—a classic Inter strength. However, their attack hinges almost entirely on Lautaro Martínez, with other goals often coming from set-pieces or opponent errors. Fluminense advanced with 1 win and 2 draws, employing tactical fouls and defensive counterattacks against stronger sides. In their last group stage match vs. Mamelodi Sundowns, they registered 0 shots on target, exemplifying this approach. Against Inter, they will aim to exploit Inter’s likely second-half fitness drop to blunt their attack.
Odds Analysis
The over/under line started at 2.5 goals but has fallen to 2.25, with odds for "over" rising. Bookmakers doubt high goal tallies, especially given Fluminense’s physical style, which is likely to fragment play and reduce sustained attacking periods.
Expected Corner Kicks: Over 9
Overview
Inter employ a 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritizing midfield control and wide crosses. Their set-piece threats and aerial dominance are key weapons. Fluminense opt for a 5-3-2 defensive counter-attack system, relying on Thiago Silva’s experience and Arias’ wide runs. Both teams emphasize wide play, and with Inter’s set-piece proficiency, corner kicks are expected to be frequent.
